世界黄金年鉴2013

=========如图太小请点此新窗口打开查看=========

==========以下对应文字版==========

GOLDSURVEY 2013 NEILMEADER HEAD PRECIOUSMETALS RESEARCH FORECASTSLONDON, thAPRIL 2013 GOLD SURVEY 2013 Prepared ThomsonReuters GFMS TANAKA PRECIOUS METALS www.randrefinery.com Barrick Gold Corporation www.gold.org www.cmegroup.com www.goldcorp.com www.pamp.com www.pretivm.com www.igr.com.tr www.standardbank.com/cib Thomson Reuters GFMS gratefully acknowledge generoussupport from followingcompanies year’sGold Survey itstwo Updates Italpreziosi SPA www.moro.si www.cyplus.com PRESENTATION OUTLINE GOLDPRICES OUTLOOK400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 USDOLLAR GOLD PRICE 200-day moving average US$/oz US$/oz 2011 2012 Q1.13 Average 1,572 1,669 1,632 ntra-Year10.3% 3.7% -5.6% Year-on-Year 28.3% 6.2% -3.5% Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Euro/oz 2011 2012 Q1.13 Average 1,127 1,299 1,236 ntra-Year13.7% 2.4% -2.7% Year-on-Year 21.9% 14.9% -4.2% EURO GOLD PRICE 200-day moving average Euro/oz Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS 90 100 110 120 130 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 GOLDPRICES DIFFERENTCURRENCIES INDEXED DAILY SERIES Indexed Daily Series Euro/oz US$/oz Rand/Kg Rupee/10g Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 CopperGOLD OTHERMETALS INDEXED DAILY SERIES Indexed Daily Series Silver Gold Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 US10-yr Bond DJI OTHERASSETS INDEXED DAILY SERIES Indexed Daily Series Gold Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS 200400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 real(2012) terms: annual average: $1,713 daily high: over $2,360 2012 performance: average: nominal record daily high: 13-month record 2013 potential: average: possible record daily high: two-year peak? Real Price Nominal Price Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS REAL NOMINALGOLD PRICES (REAL US$ PRICE CONSTANT2012 TERMS) SUPPLY WORLD MINE PRODUCTION Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 5001000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 Totalyear-on-year change2012 performance: up22t 0.8%yoy WORLD MINE PRODUCTION Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS 5001000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 SouthAfrica North America Latin America Australia China Other MINE PRODUCTION:WINNERS LOSERS2012 VERSUS 2011 Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS -6t -4t -2t -0.5t +0.5t +2t +4t +6t COMPANY REPORTED QUARTERLY TOTAL CASH COSTS MONEY-OF-THE-DAYTERMS) Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS 250500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 05.Q1 06.Q1 07.Q1 08.Q1 09.Q1 10.Q1 11.Q1 12.Q1 LatinAmerica North America South Africa Australia World Gold Price TOTAL CASH COST VARIANCE (2011 VERSUS 2012) Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS 620 640 660 680 700 720 740 760 780 2011 2012 +3+2 +3 +2 +1 +22 -21 738 658+41 +22 +5 GOLD PRODUCTION COSTS Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS 200400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 All-inCosts Total Production Costs Total Cash Costs Mine-site Cash Operating Costs Annual Average Gold Price $1,211/ oz MINE PRODUCTION Globalmine production up 0.8% (22t) thyear rdsuccessive record. Largestgrowth seen China(+42 outputfrom domestic primary gold mining smeltingoperations. Largestlosses: Indonesia(-31t, Grasbergsuffered drop SouthAfrica (-20t, labourunrest). Annualaverage total cash costs up 12% Globalannual average all-in costs up 12% year-on-year, maindrivers: declining average mill head grades labourcosts. Jewellery 49% Official Holdings 17% Private Investment 20% Other Fabrication 12% Lost Unaccounted2% ABOVE-GROUND STOCKS GOLD,END-2012 Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS (Gold Survey 2013) Above-ground Stocks, end 2012 174,100tSUPPLY FROM SCRAP, HEDGING OFFICIALSALES Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS 400800 1200 1600 2000 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 ScrapHedging Supply Net Official Sector Sales Secular increase supply1987-99 Flatter trend since 2000 200400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 200400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 GOLDSCRAP SUPPLY Scrap Gold price Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS REGIONAL CHANGES SCRAPSUPPLY 2012 COMPARED 2011Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS East Asia North America Middle East Europe Rest ndianS-C -60 -40 -20 2040 60 200400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 06.H1 07.H1 08.H1 09.H1 10.H1 11.H1 12.H1 JEWELLERYFABRICATION SCRAPSUPPLY Jewellery Fabrication Scrap Supply Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS (Gold Survey 2013) NET JEWELLERY DEMAND* 2003 2012Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS -400 -300 -200 -100 100200 300 400 500 India China USA Europe Middle East Japan IndiaJapan 2003 2012 *Jewellery consumption minus all scrap DEMAND WORLD GOLD FABRICATION Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS (Gold Survey 2013) 5001000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 IndustrialisedCountries Developing Countries 2012 down 148t 5.4%yoy JEWELLERY FABRICATION: WINNERS LOSERS(Figures represent year-on-year change, i.e. 2012 less 2011) Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS ndianS-C East Asia CI NorthAmerica Rest WorldMiddle East Europe -60 -40 -20 FABRICATIONDEMAND Totalgold fabrication: down 5.3% 2,613tonnes Jewellerydemand: down 4.2% 1,893tonnes lossesmainly excluded,rest worlddown 2.6%. resultsflattered excluded,rest worlddown 5.7%. globalofftake excluding scrap down 7.7% Globalindustrial offtake: down 9.8% principallydue weakereconomic environment price-ledsubstitution losses. Officialcoin minting: down 19% NorthAmerica. NET OFFICIAL SECTOR SALES/PURCHASES Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS (Gold Survey 2013) -800 -600 -400 -200 200400 600 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 CBGAIMF (ON-MARKET SALES) OTHER Net Sales Net Purchases “CBGA” refers CentralBank Gold Agreement “Other” refers allother countries TOTAL ACCELERATED SUPPLY FROM PRODUCER HEDGING* Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS 5001000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 Outstandingforwards, loans netdelta hedge against options positions. Delta-adjusted hedge book down 40 tonnes 2012.122 WORLDINVESTMENT* 2040 60 80 100 5001000 1500 2000 2500 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 *WorldInvestment impliednet investment, physical bar investment allcoins medalsValue nvestmentSource: Thomson Reuters GFMS (Gold Survey 2013) INVESTMENT WorldInvestment impliedfigure, physical bar investment allcoins): down1.8% last year 1,605tonnes. absolutelevel still high historically (share totalgold demand valueterms, World Investment saw fresh all-time-high $86billion. Physicalbar investment down 17% 998tonnes last year largestcomponent WorldInvestment ndhighest Impliednet investment roughly tripled almost300 tonnes Majordrivers investmentincluded: ultra-lowinterest rates developedworld, highlyaccommodative monetary policies majoradvanced economies, conventionalassets. negativereal interest rates manyemerging markets limitedinvestment alternatives keyemerging markets, GOLD EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS 5001000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 OthersiShares COMEX Gold Trust SPDR Gold Trust NewGold Gold Debentures GBS LSE 279t increase 2012177t fall Q1.13Source: Respective issuers 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 50100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Averagesize net“investor” long 2010 263k contracts 2011 219k contracts 2012 192k contracts 13.Q1 161k contracts *Non-commercial non-reportablenet positions futurestaken investors’positions. Gold Price INVESTORS’ POSITIONS* GOLDFUTURES Source: CFTC PHYSICAL BAR INVESTMENT Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS (Gold Survey 2013) -200 200400 600 800 1000 1200 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 EuropeNorth America Thailand Other China Indian S-C PRICE OUTLOOK GOLD SUPPLY 2011-2013F Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 2011 2012 2013F MineProduction Scrap Hedging SUPPLY Overallsupply set moderategrowth mineproduction Minesupply 2%,boosted additionalsupply from newprojects, continuedramp-up enteredproduction last year. lessdisruption SouthAfrica Scrapsupply year,rising primarilydriven developingworld’s price-sensitive markets. GOLD DEMAND 2011-2013F Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS 10002000 3000 4000 5000 2011 2012 2013F OtherFabrication Excluding Coins Official Sector Producer De-Hedging World nvestment*Jewellery *World Investment impliednet investment, physical bar investment allcoins medalsDEMAND Jewelleryfabrication weakenfurther maindrivers: high volatilegold prices stillchallenging economic backdrop volumesstill expected holdabove 2009’s depressed level. Otherfabrication (excluding coins) maincauses: substitution bothelectronics dentaldemand. Netofficial sector purchases stayelevated, slightlydown year-on-year. Investmentdemand 1,900tonnes, highestlevel since 2009. 5001000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 WORLDINVESTMENT* FABRICATION(EXCLUDING COINS) 1980-2013F Fabrication World Investment Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS *World Investment ImpliedNet Investment, Physical Bar Investment allCoins 2040 60 80 100 120 140 5001000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F *MarketSurplus MineProduction plus Scrap less Fabrication (excluding all Coins). GOLD MARKET “SURPLUS”* Volume (LHS) Value (RHS) Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS INVESTMENT 2013Environment goldinvestment generallyremain supportive Sluggisheconomic growth industrialisedcountries conventionalassets. Loosemonetary policies maintainedthroughout 2013 ongoingsovereign debt concerns, particularly UnitedStates. Short-terminterest rates developedworld remain ultra-lowlevels throughout 2013 Negativereal interest rates saverscontinue manyemerging market countries. Risinginflationary concerns GOLD’S 2013 BACKDROP PRICEOUTLOOK Overallsupply continuedgrowth mineproduction Goldfabrication demand (excluding coins) yeargiven higher gold prices fragileeconomic environment. Marketsurplus differencebetween supply from mine production scrapless fabrication excluding all coins) set continuegrowing growfurther thanks sufficientlysupportive macroeconomic environment maininfluence Aboveforces should push gold prices higher year,although periods priceweakness expected.1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Average02/ 01/ 12 30/03/ 12: $1,691 Average 02/ 01/ 13 29/03/ 13: $1,632 Full Year 2013 forecast average: $1,730 Full Year 2013 range: $1,530 $1,850THOMSON REUTERS GFMS GOLD PRICE FORECAST 2013Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS DISCLAIMER opinionscontained presentationhave been obtained from sources believed representation,guarantee, condition warranty,express reliedupon Accordingly,Reuters Ltd accepts liabilitywhatsoever organizationsattending anythird party, informationcontained anyopinion set out presentationdoes makeany recommendation provideinvestment advice anygold, silver, platinum palladiumrelated transaction allinvestment objectives, financial situations particularneeds. Prior makingany investment decisions investors should seek advice from whetherany part specificcircumstances. sellgold, silver, platinum anygold, silver, platinum palladiumrelated products. Expressions ReutersLtd only changewithout notice.

(转载请注明出处和本文链接)
+1
0人
热门文章